Risks and challenges of the EU expansion
周大勇 (Zhou,Dayong)

I. Introduction
For several years now the European Union is discussing a possible enlargement, because several European countries have applied for membership in the EU. These are especially the former socialist countries in Eastern Europe, that have clearly turned towards the west since the collapse of the iron curtain. These countries are Bulgaria, the Baltic countries Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Hungary.

In addition Turkey, Cyprus and Malta are trying for quite some time already to join the EU. These application are not to be accepted without any further deliberation because they do bring along some risks and the consequences are hard to distinguish therefore these countries are not very expected joining the European Union in the near future and will therefore not be included in the following evaluation.
II. Risks and challenges
If we wants to evaluate the risks and challenges of an upcoming enlargement of the EU, we should first take into account experiences gained during previous expansion which were to some extent comparable. Here the southern expansion from 1986 should be mentioned where two economically pathetic countries sought admission to the then European Community. The admission procedure of these two candidates, being Spain and Portugal, were lengthy and considered very problem bearing. Especially the amount of produce that would add to the already existing agricultural over-production of the Community was seen to be a problem since it would increase the load on the European budget.

But seen from a global economical perspective the joining of Spain and Portugal was overall positive for the EC and the two countries, although Spain struggled with a further rise of unemployment and disparities within the Community were further amplified.

The disparities within the Union will most certainly increase when it comes to an eastern expansion, but the agricultural problem will not be an issue, because the candidates have not got their focus on agriculture, already because of their communist heritage which focused on industry rather than on agriculture or the tertiary sector.

In case of the approaching expansion towards Eastern Europe the Union will have to resolve several problems, the most severe being without any doubt the financial one that will go along with the extension, estimated to be ?5 - ?6 billion annually, just for the technologically underdeveloped agriculture in the new member states.

The financial problem will also lead to a temporary discontent among the population of the existing members, since the financial load on the countries will cause budget cuts because the new members will undoubtedly belong to the payees rather than the payers. Especially the Mediterranean members, for instance Italy, Spain etc. fear cuts in their subsidies particularly the agricultural ones, and agriculture is already making up the biggest part of the EU′s budget.

Of course it is also to be questioned whether with the joining of economically weak countries the economies of the "richer" members are not weakened.

What should be taken into consideration as well is the impact the joining will have on the population of the candidates, especially considering the rights they will gain when they are citizens of the European community. They do then have the right to settle and work anywhere within the community, this could lead to a large amount of people pouring into the old member countries trying to seek work there and make their living. And since most of the European countries are already struggling with high unemployment the high rates could be pushed up further and the discontent among the population could worsen, especially against the background of Neo-Nazis in Germany and other countries such as Britain or Italy. Off course this would only be a temporary problem, which would solve itself over time as the new members develop economically, but still this could prove to be a major issue.

Of course their comes also a minor problem along with the expansion, this problem being even more languages than the twelve, already being used, in which EU communications would have to be carried out adding to the already huge administrative body of the European Union and also causing further costs of the EU.
But because the expansion represents a political necessity one should also take into account the positive aspects caused by such a historic event. With the expansion the continent would take a huge step towards the ethnic integration within Europe, different cultures would be facing each other and could also profit from each other. Also the global competitiveness of the EU against the USA and Asia would improve and another step towards global peace would be undertaken.
III. Changes in administration
It is obvious that an expansion potentially including ten countries would not be feasible without fundamental institutional reforms.

For instance with the existing structure of the Union which allocates most of the power to the European Council, where each member state has one vote, it would be imaginable that smaller members would have a majority over the larger members. Except for Poland, which is by population comparable to Spain and would consequently be a large member, all other candidates are relatively small in size an population.

Another point is that with more than twenty members the decision finding and making process needs to be completely reconsidered, so it represents the actual size of the member countries in terms of population rather than giving each member a veto and especially one single vote. The existing voting and weighting system is also already making the decision finding process a painfully and lengthy one, another ten different opinions added to this would make it virtually impossible to come to an agreement that at least partially satisfies all members and is therefore being supported and not vetoed against.

A changed "legislature" would also keep the democratic thought that the entire EU is based on alive and not vanish it like the existing system.

What should also be pointed out is the fact that an increase in members could lead to new coalitions within the Union and also increase competition among the individual countries. There are even critics that fear that an eastern expansion could lead to a shift in power towards the reunified Germany, since the potential new members are already heavily bound and leaning towards Germany.

What should also be considered is a change in European agricultural policy, which should actually be reformed already. The system of milk quotas, subsidies etc. which subsidises an over-production in many areas, just not to infuriate the farmers, because smaller farms would not be able to survive without the subsidies and the entire face of the European primary sector would change is completely outdated. This system could definitely no longer be kept up with even more farmers to support.
IV. Successful without absorbing the new members?
It is obvious that this question needs to be answered with a clear no. The existing members of the EU are already being absorbed by it and they have all chosen this faith. The goals of the European Union do state the loss of sovereignty in the areas of economic and currency politics, the latter one already realized, also in the political areas of social politics, education, research, consumer protection, health and also environmental issues. Now one could argue how many of these goals need to be realized in order for the EU to be successful, from the British point of view for example the cooperation in economic issues and the creation of the single market have already been enough, considering their opinion towards the Maastricht treaty.

If one would see it from the British point of view the EU could be successful without absorbing the new members, but since most other countries would like to see the above mentioned goals implied and would like to realize the dream of de Gaulle, Adenauer and others of "the United States of Europe", the new members would surrender a huge part of their sovereignty and consequently would be absorbed by the EU, especially considering that they will join in a couple of years at the earliest when European integration will hopefully have advanced beyond the point it is today.
Another point one could consider is what would happen if the European integration would further advance up to the point of the United States of Europe without any new countries joining. This would create another superpower alongside the USA and the then non-members would live in the shadow of the EU or whatever its name would be by that time and also be absorbed by the enormous power, in any terms, of their big neighbour just like the Caribbean, Canada and Mexico, even the entire Americas are by the USA. So the conclusion drawn by this could be that the central and eastern European countries would be better off in any case if they joined the EU even if they had to surrender much of their sovereignty.
Sources:

(1) http://www.europa.eu.int/ (March 17th, 2001)
(2) http://idw.tu-clausthal.de/public/zeige_pm.html?pmid=26445 (April 5th, 2001)
(3) Informationen zur politischen Bildung: Europäische Union (BpB, 1995)
(4) Microsoft Encarta 98
(5) Mittel- und Osteuropa auf dem Weg in die Europäische Union (Werner Weidenfeld, Verlag Bertelsmann Stiftung, 1996)
(6) http://www.e-politik.de/beitrag.cfm?Beitrag_ID=559 (April 1st, 2001)

甘肃省嘉峪关市人民政府


嘉峪关市引进人才若干政策规定

（嘉政发[1999]9号　1999年1月29日）


　　为了建设一支高素质、门类全、多学科的科技人才队伍，加快发展我市经济和社会事业，特制定本规定。


　　一、指导思想和原则
　　以“科教兴市”和“三个有利于”为指导思想，坚持“公开、平等、竞争、择优”的原则，积极引进高素质人才，努力为我市经济建设和社会事业发展服务。


　　二、引进范围
　　1.引进带项目、资金、专利技术、科研成果，投资办厂或合作办厂的人才。
　　2.专业技术人员引进各类高级职称人才或年龄在30-40岁左右，具有本科以上学历、中级以上职称，有一定成就的工科类、医学类、农学类、经济管理类和企业管理类人才。
　　3.高等院校毕业生。选拔一些优秀的，我市经济和社会事业发展急需的本科以上毕业生，个别紧缺专业可以放宽到大专层次。
　　4.技术人才。引进紧缺专业且具有技师以上技术等级的人才或能工巧匠。
　　5.乡土人才。引进在农作物育种、种植、畜禽饲养等方面有一技之长的人才。


　　三、优惠政策
　　1.对引进急缺专业的本、专科生，到各类企业工作，试用期一年，经考核合格，由用人单位原则上按本科毕业生8000元，大专毕业生5000元给予生活安置费。用人单位根据所做贡献发给效益工资。
　　2.对各类企业引进的中、高级急缺专业人才，试用期一年，经考核称职后，由用人单位原则上给予1-2万元的生活安置费。用人单位根据所做贡献发给效益工资。
　　3.凡属引进的人才，经考核合格后，由市计委、公安局解决本人及家属子女的户口，免收城市增容费；用人单位根据贡献发给住房补助，并可优先购买一套经济适用住房。
　　4.引进的人才属辞去公职的，承认其原身份、学历、工龄和技术职称。工作期间，除享受国家规定的所有待遇外，其研究成果和开发的新产品，按经济效益给予奖励。
　　5.对企业引进急需的中级以上科技人员、技师、能工巧匠，由企业考核后，可不受身份、学历的限制，既可专职，也可兼职，既可调人，也可借用，也可长短期聘用。
　　6.对各类企业引进的无中、高级职称，确有真才实学的人才，在专业技术职务评聘上根据情况可破格晋升，所享受的一切待遇由用人单位根据所评聘的职称确定。
　　7.对具有高级职称的专家来我市开展技术服务，组织技术攻关，担任顾问或参与管理的，根据贡献和效益，给予一次性奖励；对被聘请为经济技术顾问的专家，在聘期内由聘用单位每年发给2000元左右的津贴；对来我市进行技术咨询、学术交流等活动的专家，给予一定的报酬，并按规定报销往返差旅费。
　　8.凡属引进的人才，对我市经济发展做出贡献的，按照《嘉峪关市招商引资若干政策规定》第十三条给予奖励。


　　四、管理与服务
　　1.对引进的各类人才，各部门要积极创造宽松适宜的工作环境，对做出一定贡献的，及时选拔使用或给予荣誉奖励。
　　2.经人事劳动部门确认，并办理有关引进手续的人才，由用人单位和本人签订合同，最低服务期限5年。
　　3.引进后的人才，用人单位要积极使用，加强培养，并及时向人事部门反馈使用信息。人事部门也要经常深入用人单位，了解引进人才的工作、生活和发挥作用情况，及时处理出现的问题。
　　4.引进后的人才，经使用考核发现弄虚作假者，取消原给予享受的一切待遇，已解决“农转非”的注销城市户口，并追究有关人员的责任。


　　五、本规定自发布之日起实施。


　　六、本规定由市人事劳动局负责解释。